The hottest downstream demand drives the capacity

2022-10-19
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Downstream demand will drive the capacity growth of carbon black industry, and the industry concentration will increase

carbon black is a kind of carbon, which exists in the form of nano particle size and amorphous carbon. It is the product of incomplete combustion or thermal decomposition of organic substances (natural gas, heavy oil, fuel oil, etc.) under the condition of insufficient air. Carbon black is the first nano material developed, applied and produced by human beings. It is listed as one of 25 basic chemical products and fine chemical products in the international chemical field. Carbon black industry is of great significance to automobile industry, new energy industry and improving the quality of civil life products

the main raw materials for carbon black production are coal tar, direct industry, ethylene tar and other raw oil. The quality requirements of raw oil in the carbon black industry are: high aromatics content, correlation index (BMCI) 120, and less impurities, asphalts and resins. In the actual production process, different manufacturers will use different raw materials, or comprehensively apply different raw materials for proportioning production

domestic carbon black plants use coal tar and anthracene oil as the main raw materials. Coal tar and anthracene oil are by-products of coking, and anthracene oil is the downstream product of coal tar. Therefore, the price of coal tar largely determines or limits the production cost of domestic carbon black according to the higher temperature specified by the customer. The production of carbon black by coal tar oil method has cost advantages; With the expansion of production scale and the adoption of high-temperature air preheater and high-efficiency glass fiber filter bag, the cost advantage of this process is more significant

ethylene tar is mostly used as the main raw material in foreign carbon black plants. Ethylene tar is a by-product of petroleum refining ethylene production. The rise in international crude oil prices will push up the production cost of carbon black from ethylene tar, which is not conducive to the development of this process

from a global perspective, the capacity reduction value of bamboo powder of global carbon black enterprises has become relatively flat in recent years, and the ranking has not changed much. At present, the top three carbon black enterprises in the world are Cabot, Bora and eurilon. The concentration of the world carbon black industry is significantly higher than that of the domestic carbon black industry. According to statistics, the global carbon black output in 2017 was 12.77 million tons, of which China's output was 5.537 million tons, accounting for 43.4% of the total global output in the same period; The output of the United States is 1.519 million tons, accounting for 11.9%; The output of carbon black in Russia is 94000 tons, accounting for 7.4%

in recent years, the overall situation of China's carbon black industry has developed steadily. The output and sales of carbon black have achieved rapid growth, the production scale has been continuously improved, the industrial concentration has increased, and the overall industrial capacity is greater than the demand, which has exacerbated the competitive risk of the industry to a certain extent. At the same time, with the improvement of the technical level of Chinese carbon black enterprises and their gradual participation in the competition in the high-end product market, some international carbon black enterprises have also increased their investment in China, making the competition in the high-end carbon black market more intense

there are four enterprises listed in A-share market in China with carbon black as the main business, namely Jiangxi black cat carbon black Co., Ltd., Longxing Chemical Co., Ltd., Shanxi Yongdong Co., Ltd. and Jinneng Technology Co., Ltd. Among them, the carbon black business income of the leading enterprise black cat Co., Ltd. reached 5.765 billion, and the carbon black business scale of Longxing Chemical Co., Ltd. reached 2.872 billion

black cat Co., Ltd. is currently the largest carbon black producer in China, and also the most technologically advanced carbon black enterprise. After years of hard work, the company's production bases are located in Jingdezhen, Jiangxi, Chaoyang, Liaoning, Hancheng, Shaanxi, Wuhai, Inner Mongolia, Handan and Tangshan, Hebei, Taiyuan, Shanxi and Jining, Shandong. In the layout of the bases, full consideration is given to the proximity of raw material origin and consumption

due to the special national conditions, the proportion of independent coking enterprises in China has always been high. Among them, polylactic acid and starch based plastics will continue to dominate the biodegradable plastic packaging market, and their competitiveness lies in the deep processing of coal tar and the comprehensive utilization of coke oven gas. There is a serious overcapacity in the coking industry. During the 12th Five Year Plan period, China's coke production capacity has been eliminated by 97 million tons, and it is planned to eliminate 50 million tons of coke production capacity during the 13th Five Year Plan period. In the long run, the elimination of small coking enterprises has a great impact on the coal tar deep processing industry. Many small enterprises in the carbon black industry are actually a workshop of small coking enterprises, and this part of carbon black production capacity will be gradually eliminated in the future

due to the rise in raw material prices caused by supply side reform and environmental protection pressure, the carbon black industry has been reshuffled, the profitability of large enterprises in the industry has been strengthened, and the bargaining power of downstream enterprises has been improved. This conclusion will continue to apply in the future

in 2017, the output of China's carbon black industry was about 5.537 million tons, the import volume was about 102000 tons, the export volume was about 731000 tons, and the domestic carbon black industry demand was about 4.908 million tons. The supply and demand situation of China's carbon black industry in recent years is shown in the figure below:

the carbon black industry conforms to the development direction of the national industrial policy, which provides support for the overall good development of the carbon black industry. With the rapid development of China's economy, automobile tires The rapid growth of downstream industries such as the cable industry has driven the rapid development of the carbon black industry. With the improvement of the technical level of domestic conductive carbon black production enterprises, the market share of domestic conductive carbon black has gradually expanded. The conductive carbon black used in some medium and high voltage power cable shielding materials has been provided by domestic enterprises, but it basically relies on imports in the field of high voltage and ultra-high voltage cable shielding materials. Rubber for tires is the field with the largest proportion of carbon black applications. Driven by the rapid development of the domestic automotive industry and the global tire industry, we have obtained the ISO9001 international quality system certification and the national measurement system certification, which have been transferred to China. The domestic tire industry has maintained a sustained and rapid growth, thus driving the development of the domestic carbon black industry

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