The most popular new urbanization has given birth

2022-07-31
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New urbanization has given birth to five investment opportunities to stimulate domestic demand for a long time

new urbanization has given birth to five investment opportunities to stimulate domestic demand for a long time

China Construction Machinery Information

Guide: after the promulgation of the national new urbanization plan (year), major institutions have explored the investment opportunities brought by new urbanization. Many securities companies believe that the development goal of new urbanization provides huge domestic demand, investment and financing opportunities, but new urbanization is a long history

after the promulgation of the national new urbanization plan (year), all major institutions have invested in the new urbanization. What "strange" material is this? The answer is that bentonite modified starch biodegradable composites (BMSC) have been explored. Many securities companies believe that the development goal of new urbanization provides huge opportunities for domestic demand, investment and financing, but new urbanization is a long-term historical process and cannot be achieved overnight. Therefore, the investment opportunities brought by new urbanization to the capital market are more likely to come from companies that benefit from the promotion process of new urbanization in the medium and long term

Qiujicheng, chief economist of Cinda securities, believes that urbanization provides a long-term and lasting driving force for China's economic development and is an important platform and carrier for China's industrial structure upgrading and transformation. Urbanization is also a sharp weapon to eliminate the "dual separation" system between urban and rural areas in China

he believes that new urbanization should focus on five investment opportunities

first,

the huge domestic demand of the citizenization of the agricultural transfer population. Urbanization has developed in a healthy and orderly manner. The urbanization rate of the permanent population has reached about 60%, the urbanization rate of the registered residence population has reached about 45%, the gap between the urbanization rate of the registered residence population and the urbanization rate of the permanent population has narrowed by about 2 percentage points, and efforts have been made to achieve the settlement of about 100million agricultural migrants and other permanent residents in cities and towns

"Our research shows that in 1990, the proportion of final consumption of urban and rural residents reached a historic inflection point. Since 1990, the consumption of urban residents in China has exceeded the consumption expenditure of rural residents, and the gap tends to continue to expand. The corresponding urbanization has also shown a trend of accelerated development. By 2011, China's consumption focus has absolutely shifted to cities, and the final consumption of urban residents accounts for almost 80% of the total. Urbanization has promoted The role of consumption is very obvious. " He said

second,

the agricultural transfer population has developed in depth to the tertiary industry and service industry, improving the ability and speed of China's structural transformation. With the steady improvement of the level and quality of urbanization in China, the allocation of resources is more optimized, and the development space of the service industry is further opened

third,

new urbanization contains huge investment demand for urban infrastructure, public service facilities and housing construction. For example, by 2020, ordinary railways will cover cities with a population of more than 200000, and fast railways will basically cover cities with a population of more than 500000; Ordinary national highways basically cover the county, and national highways basically cover cities with a population of more than 200000; The civil aviation network continues to expand, and aviation services cover about 90% of the country's population

in addition, it can be seen from the main development indicators of new urbanization that the investment in basic public services, basic implementation fields and resources and environmental protection fields initiated by this plan is huge. In basic public services, we see a great demand for investment in education, medical care, labor training, elderly care and affordable housing construction. In the field of infrastructure implementation, the investment demand for transportation, water supply, sewage treatment, urban domestic waste treatment, information infrastructure and urban community comprehensive service facilities. In the field of environmental resources, we see that new energy and green energy are no longer just the basic indicator source and the investment demand for energy-saving and environmental protection technologies

fourth,

promote institutional reform in many aspects, eliminate policy barriers, and create huge institutional dividends. We will allow the agricultural transfer population to settle in cities and towns (specify the goal of 100million people settling in cities and towns), promote the agricultural transfer population to enjoy basic public services in cities and towns, provide skills training for migrant workers, reform the method of requisition of rural construction land, promote a unified urban and rural construction land market, grant farmers more property rights, increase farmers' property income, and enhance the market-oriented mechanism for the use of land resources, These reform measures have laid a solid foundation for the successful promotion of new urbanization and thus released huge institutional dividends

fifth,

innovate the urbanization fund guarantee mechanism and establish a standardized and transparent urban construction investment and financing mechanism. On the basis of improving laws and regulations and the debt management system of local governments, we will establish and improve the local bond issuance management system and rating system, allow local governments to issue municipal bonds, and broaden financing channels for urban construction. Innovate financial services and products, promote equity financing through multiple channels, and increase the proportion of direct financing. Give play to the important role of existing policy oriented financial institutions, study and formulate special support policies for policy oriented finance, study and establish policy oriented financial institutions for urban infrastructure and housing, and provide standardized, transparent, reasonable cost and term matching financing services for the construction of urban infrastructure and affordable housing projects. We will straighten out the price formation mechanism for municipal public products and services, relax access, improve supervision, formulate measures for non-public enterprises to enter the franchise field, 25 cold-rolled ribbed steel bars, and encourage social capital to participate in the investment and operation of urban public facilities. Encourage public funds, insurance funds and other funds to participate in the construction and operation of urban infrastructure projects with stable benefits

three theme investment opportunities

maochangqing, research department of CITIC Securities, believes that the planning content conforms to the expected external window curtain wall experimental method AAMA 501 (9) 4. The plan emphasizes comprehensively improving the quality of urbanization and accelerating the transformation of urbanization development mode. It should take human urbanization as the core, and put forward four strategic tasks: promoting the citizenization of agricultural transfer population, optimizing the layout and form of urbanization, improving the ability of urban sustainable development, and promoting urban-rural integration. It focuses on solving the problems of agricultural transfer population settling in cities and towns, the transformation of urban shanty towns and villages, and the urbanization of the central and western regions

"on the whole, new urbanization should focus on three aspects from the perspective of capital market." Maochangqing said that first of all, people-oriented and attach importance to the construction of urban software environment. The plan emphasizes the need to improve the quality of urbanization and put people first. The construction of urban software environment is very important, including the construction of ecological environment with the content of increasing the proportion of green ecological space, improving energy efficiency, reducing pollution discharge and improving sewage treatment capacity, and the construction of information environment with the main content of efficient management, residential safety and life wisdom. The construction of urban software environment means that the development needs of environmental protection, information, security and other industries will be further released

secondly, improve the comprehensive carrying capacity and strengthen the construction of urban hardware environment. The plan emphasizes the need to improve the comprehensive carrying capacity of cities, which includes the following contents: the construction of urban agglomerations with "two horizontal and three vertical" as the main body, the urbanization construction in the central and western regions with relatively low urbanization level, the construction of municipal infrastructure with urban rail and management facilities as the main body, and the housing construction with the transformation of urban shanty towns and urban villages as the main content. Although the peak period of China's urban hardware construction may have passed, the construction of urban agglomerations, the promotion of urbanization in the central and western regions and the transformation of shanty towns will still provide market space for rail transit, pipe construction and other fields

in addition, focus on solving the problem of "three 100million people" to release consumer demand. Premier Li Keqiang put forward in the government work report that "about 100million people from agricultural transfer will be promoted to settle in cities and towns, about 100million people will live in shanty towns and villages in cities and towns, and about 100million people will be guided to urbanize nearby in the central and western regions". In the coming period, urbanization will be guided by the solution of the problem of "three 1

100 million people" to improve the level and quality of urbanization. "Due to the different consumption structure between rural and urban residents and the squeezing effect of housing consumption on other consumption, we believe that the settlement of the" three 1

100 million people "problem will gradually release the consumption potential." Maochangqing said

according to maochangqing, from the perspective of thematic investment opportunities, it is suggested to focus on three main lines

first, in the process of deep urbanization of first tier cities, on the one hand, in order to improve urban management efficiency, the investment related to smart cities such as security and intelligent transportation will maintain a stable growth rate; On the other hand, the importance of urban ecological civilization will increase, and the investment in environmental protection infrastructure and green gardens will increase

second, through municipal construction and investment, the population load capacity of the second tier cities and the citizen load capacity of the first and second tier cities will be increased, and the regions where the investment growth rate is expected to be high will have affordable housing projects, urban management, rail transit, etc

third, with the gradual promotion of "citizenization", on the one hand, we are optimistic about the direct needs of migrant workers' families after they settle down, including home decoration, culture and education, and medical care. On the other hand, the increase of urban consumption penetration rate will also bring opportunities for the expansion and upgrading of the demand for mass consumer goods

focus on medium - and long-term profitable industries and companies

"new urbanization is a long-term historical process and cannot be achieved overnight." Chenguanglei, Macro Analyst of Hongyuan securities, believes that this also means that the release of domestic demand for urbanization is a medium - and long-term process. It takes time for both urban agglomeration infrastructure construction, smart city informatization development, energy conservation and environmental protection development and other fixed asset investment opportunities, as well as population transfer and settlement in cities and towns and upgrading of residents' consumption structure

therefore, in his opinion, the behavior of hot speculation on the concept of urbanization in the short term is unsustainable, and the investment opportunities in the capital market are more likely to come from companies that benefit from the promotion process of new urbanization in the medium and long term

maochangqing of CITIC Securities Research Department also believes that the content of the plan is the medium and long-term development direction of urbanization, so it has little impact on the short-term economic trend and will not change the short-term market operation trend

"we believe that although promoting new urbanization will support economic growth to some extent, it is unlikely to change its long-term trend, so it should not be regarded as a short-term 'stimulus'." Wang Tao, special chief economist of UBS Securities, said that public finance reform, including fiscal and land reform, is the key to the success of new urbanization

in terms of investment suggestions, Wang Tao believes that working to promote the urbanization of "people" means that the government will increase investment in public services, social security networks and service industries, which will help promote consumption, especially in public utilities, health care, entertainment and leisure services. Other industries that may benefit include building materials, railway equipment, natural gas, renewable energy and anti pollution products

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